Guesstimate — Estimate the Facebook Users in India

Welcome to Day 2/30 of Mastering Guesstimates

Q. Estimate the Facebook Users in India.

Clarifying Questions:

1. Active Facebook users or also the ones who have accounts but don’t use it anymore or have uninstalled the app?
2. Users of any specific gender, age, geography — Rural or Urban?

A. Consider Active users as of now and calculate for the whole of India, nothing specific.

Assumptions:

1. The population of India is 140 Crores.
2. Internet penetration rate is ~60%.
3. Smartphone penetration rate is ~80%.
4. Social Media penetration rate is ~80%.
5. Percentage of older generation having Facebook accounts will be higher then the percentage of new generation.

Approach:

Population of India = 140 Cr

Population having access to Internet i.e. Internet Penetration = 60% (140 Cr) = 84 Cr

Population having access to Internet as well as Smartphones = 80%(84 Cr) = ~70 Cr

Population using any form of social media = 80%(70 Cr) = 56 Cr

Age Wise Split

Finally, Number of Facebook Accounts in India = 60%(56 Cr) = ~30 Cr

Note: As per Google, currently there are about 36 Crore Facebook Accounts in India

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Thank you for taking time to go through this guesstimate. I value your feedback and would greatly appreciate your thoughts. Please feel free to share your feedback in the comments below.

Stay tuned for Day 3/30 of Mastering Guesstimates, Until then, let curiosity be your guide and let the adventure begin!

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