Guesstimate — Estimate the market size of eyewear for vehicle owners in Delhi

Welcome to Day 7/30 of Mastering Guesstimates

Q. Estimate the market size of eyewear for vehicle owners in Delhi.

Clarifying Questions:

1. What kind of vehicle owners?
2. Can you tell more about the product?
3. By eyewear do you mean spectacles, sunglasses or lenses?

A. Vehicle owners having personal cars. Basically product is the eye wearable for those suffering with eyesight problems to use while driving for better clarity. By eyewear, we mean spectacles.

Assumptions:

1. Delhi population is ~3 Crores.
2. Average family size in urban cities is ~4 persons per family.

Approach:

Population of Delhi = 3 Crores

Number of Households in Delhi = 3 Cr/4 = 75 Lakhs

Dividing the households based on the income segment:

Households based on the income segment

Total Households = ~29 Lakhs

You might call me crazy after seeing the next step but I just saved my time by doing CTRL C and CTRL V from previous Guesstimate Day 6/30, to get the above approach. Real Solutions starts now.

Number of people having access to cars = 29 Lakhs* 4 = 1.16 Crore

Based on my observation near me and in general about 1 in 5 is suffering from eyesight diseases i.e. 20%

Population suffering from eyesight problems = 20% (1.16 Crores) = ~23 Lakhs

Dividing the Population into two types:

1. Wearing Spectacles (80%) = ~18 Lakhs
2. Contact Lenses (20%) = ~ 5 Lakhs

Dividing the spectacle wearing population into age groups:

age groups split

Population wearing spectacle and eligible to drive cars = 70% (18 Lakhs) = ~12 Lakhs

Assuming only 60% can drive cars, others do not know how to drive or are not able to drive due to any situation.

Market Size = 60% (12 Crores) = 7.2 Lakhs

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Thank you for taking time to go through this guesstimate. I value your feedback and would greatly appreciate your thoughts. Please feel free to share your feedback in the comments below.

Stay tuned for Day 8/30 of Mastering Guesstimates, Until then, let curiosity be your guide and let the adventure begin!

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