Guesstimate — Estimate the number of beers sold in Goa everyday?

Welcome to Day 12/30 of Mastering Guesstimates

Q. Estimate the number of beers sold in Goa everyday?

Clarifying Questions:

1. Beers sold to residents or tourists?
2. Beers sold by bars, restaurants, cafes or shops?
3. Any specific brand to consider?

A. Consider both residents as well as tourists. Calculate for overall beers so yes take into consideration all the places where beers are sold. Calculate for Kingfisher.

Assumptions:

1. Population of Goa ~15 lakhs
2. Around 50 lakhs tourists on an average visits Goa every year
3. Being a state with high consumption, let’s assume 80% are drinkers
4. Number of days in a year ~360 days
5. Consumption of a casual drinker is 2 cans/bottles a day and of heavy drinker is 5 cans/bottles a day
6. Market share of Kingfisher is ~50% in India

Approach:

Population of Goa ~15 lakhs

Considering a uniform distribution of tourist visit throughout the year (make sure you get this confirmed from the interviewer) and number of days in a year ~ 360 days, this gives us = 50 lakhs/360 ~14000 tourist visits per day

Total per day population = 15,14,000 persons ~15 lakhs

Drinking Population = 80%(15 lakhs) = 12 lakhs

Segregation based on drinking habit

Market share of kingfisher = 50%

Kingfisher beers sold in Goa in a single day ~ 50%(40 lakhs) = 20 lakhs

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