Guesstimate — Estimate the number of iPhones users currently in India

Welcome to Day 10/30 of Mastering Guesstimates

Heya Folks, I know it’s been a long time since I posted any new guesstimate here. But fret not, I’m back with the 10th Guesstimate.

Q. Estimate the number of iPhone users currently in India.

Clarifying Questions:

1. Any particular model or series?
2. Need to consider only iPhones or other products as well?
3. Calculation for first hand or second hand?
4. Market Share of iPhone?

A. Not for any particular model or series, consider only iPhones. Calculate for overall iPhone users not specific for first hand or second hand. Take market share of around 5% of iPhones in the smartphone business in India.

Assumptions:

1. India population is ~140 Crores.

Approach:

Population of India = 140 Crores

Age Wise Split (Source- My Guesstimate Cheatsheet)

Out of this, about 30% are children and 10% are senior citizen. we will be neglecting these people from our overall potential population.

Here for the ease of calculation, I’m considering that these 40% of people don’t own mobile phones or do not use one, but in reality it’s the opposite lol :)

Overall Potential Population = 60%(140 Cr) = ~84 Cr

Now we will be segregating these 84 Cr based on the Income Segment

Income Wise Split

Population that can afford iPhone = 40%(84 Cr) = ~34 Cr

Out of these, not everyone owns an iPhone, Samsung is also doing a pretty good job guys with their folds, flips and etc etc. So we will take into consideration the Market Share of iPhones.

iPhones users in India = 5%(34 Cr) = ~1.7 Cr

We can attempt this Guesstimate with various approaches, if you are able to decode your approach, then don’t hesitate to send it out to me or tag me wherever you’re sharing it.

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Thank you for taking time to go through this guesstimate. I value your feedback and would greatly appreciate your thoughts. Please feel free to share your feedback in the comments below.

Stay tuned for Day 11/30 of Mastering Guesstimates, Until then, let curiosity be your guide and let the adventure begin!

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