Guesstimate — Estimate the number of Uber Drivers in Delhi
Welcome to Day 4/30 of Mastering Guesstimates
Q. Estimate the number of Uber Drivers in Delhi.
Clarifying Questions:
- Do we need to consider Delhi or Delhi-NCR?
- Do we need to consider cabs of all types i.e. Go, Pool, Sedan, XL?
- Calculation for in a Day, Month or Year?
- Weekend or Weekday?
- Market share of Uber?
A. Consider Delhi, cab type as Any for this estimation. Calculate for a day (take uniform demand and supply each day) and take market share of Uber as 50%
Assumptions:
- Population of Delhi is 3 Crores
Approach:
For this problem, I’ll be calculating the number of drivers during the peak demand hours (office hours) on any given day which will ultimately give us the total number of drivers in a day, as during those hours there will be the maximum availability of the drivers.
Peak Demand Hours = 9AM to 11AM
Population of Delhi = 3 Crores
Splitting Age Wise to find the number of Working Professionals
Out of these 90 Lakhs finding the people who will be preferring cabs over other means of transport, Mode of Transport Split:
- No transport — 5%
- Bus — 25%
- Metro — 40%
- Personal Vehicles — 10%
- Cabs — 10% = 10%(90 Lakhs) = 9 Lakhs
- Others — 10%
People using Uber out of these 9 Lakhs = 50%(9 Lakhs) = 4.5 Lakhs
Considering Peak Hours, any driver is able to complete ~2 Riders per hour, i.e. 4 rides in total peak hours
Total Riders = (4*1.2) = ~5
Total number of drivers = Total number of cabs required during peak hours = 4.5 Lakhs/5 = 90K Drivers
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Thank you for taking time to go through this guesstimate. I value your feedback and would greatly appreciate your thoughts. Please feel free to share your feedback in the comments below.
Stay tuned for Day 5/30 of Mastering Guesstimates, Until then, let curiosity be your guide and let the adventure begin!
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